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Special feature: Forecast for the auto industry in 2010

2009 was a year that most carmakers would rather forgotten, as we have seen the biggest sales drop and many of those storied brands have gone. As we are looking forward to 2010, here are what we are predicting in coming years.

1) Mercedes and BMW will continue to sell most (by Mercedes and BMW’s definition of “most” equals 98%) of their cars through cheap lease rates and artificially high residual values, even if their resale value have taken a beaten over the last few years due to supply over demand on used market.

2) Those ungainly looking hatchbacks, crossovers…whatsoever (BMW 5-Series GT, Honda Accord Crosstour and Acura ZDX) will have huge incentive to move out of dealer lots by mid-year.

3) Toyota/Lexus’s quality will continue to drop, as they kept beating up their suppliers on corner cutting. Toyota/Lexus of the 2010 is no longer made like it was in 1992. While those early 90s Camry and Previa can last forever, god knows how much quality problems will have with those 2010 Matrix and Sienna.

4) Given Chrysler’s lack of core product introduction in 2010, while Fiat’s reestablishment in North America market is a big question marks. We wonder how long can Chrysler last?

5) Hyundai and Kia will continue to eat into the market share currently dominated by Honda and Toyota. When you can get a Hyundai Genesis V8 for the same price as an Acura RL, which one would your rather get?

6) Audi will continue to have sales growth with exciting product offensive without those incentive to move metals like its cross-town rivals: Mercedes and BMW.

7) After Audi, Subaru’s successful attempt of mainstreaming their once-quirky affordable AWD will continue to have sales growth. Who would have thought the dismiss of flameless Subaru and parking light switch on top of steering column can please both enthuisasts and general audience?

8 ) This year will be the big year of small car. As we will see Mazda2 and Ford Fiesta will be going to challenge the class-leader: Honda Fit. If VW is really going to bring the Polo, its going to be a fun party.

9) Even if Saab is able to be saved by Spyker, we can only foreseen this iconic Swedish brand being an Euro-only brand for the first few years. As GM nearly completely tranished the Saab franchise in North America, completely destroyed the resale value by annoucing its “wind down”.

10) Ford will continue to be America’s #1 domestic carmaker with their exciting new products. Not only they have created a niche with the excellent Transit Connect, both the new Taurus and Fusion have got rave reviews. Incoming Mustang with new 5.0 liter V8 is going to be an awesome beast. And that 2.0 Ecoboost 4-cylinder…… :)